CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-07-14T19:10:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-07-14T19:10ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25976/-1
CME Note: CME is faint and difficult to observe, seen as a partial halo to the S/SW in SOHO LASCO C2 and for few frames in STEREO A COR2 preceding data gap. The source is likely an eruption and subsequent C8.8 flare from AR 3370 (near S18E14) starting around 2023-07-14T18:35Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Noticeably deflected W. Arrival signature: Sharp increase in B-total from 7nT to 13nT. Sudden fluctuation in B-field components and increases in solar wind speed from ~350km/s to ~450km/s, in temperature and gradual increase in density. From Tarik Salman, LASSOS: definite shock arrival ~2023-07-16T18:35Z and another similar and more prominent feature in the plasma data around 2023-07-17T01:26Z (speed jump of 200 km/s) but nothing in the magnetic field. It is possible to have an admixture of HSS as well late on 2023-07-17.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-16T18:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-17T12:39Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
************************************************************************************** % Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 934.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v3 Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021 - DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01747-4] u_r = 552.762 Acceleration: 0.727638 Duration in seconds: 235766.80 Duration in days: 2.7287824 t2 is negative ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: 0.73 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 724.3 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/07/2023 Time: 12:39 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 11.93 hour(s)
Difference: -18.07 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (UoA) on 2023-07-16T06:39Z
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